Uncertainty in wind power generation

What is wind-to-power uncertainty?

Wind-to-power uncertainty Due to the strong variability of the wind field, the random nature of turbine control systems, and non-linearity of power curves, the process of converting wind to power is characterised by randomness, non-linearity and boundedness .

What are uncertainty sources in wind power forecasting?

First, the definition of uncertainty sources throughout the forecast modelling chain acts as a guiding line for checking and evaluating the uncertainty of a wind power forecast system/model.

Why is uncertainty a problem in the forecasted wind?

Uncertainty in the forecasted wind also creates a problem in developing proper bidding strategy for intra-day power bidding [ 10 ]. Different methods are developed to take care of both the data inaccuracy and model misspecification and provide uncertainty information of the wind power generation forecast [ 11 ].

What is forecast uncertainty in a high wind penetration area?

Uncertainty in a high wind penetration area The forecast uncertainty changes in areas where wind power penetration increases above approximately 30% of the demand .

How to model wind power uncertainty in decision-making problems?

The generation of quality scenarios is essential to model wind power uncertainty in decision-making problems through a stochastic programming approach. Several methods have been proposed in the literature to generate wind power scenarios. These are fundamentally categorized as path-based methods, movement matching, and internal sampling.

How does uncertainty affect wind power predicted risk?

This means that the uncertainty is supposed to have “inertia”, that is the predicted accuracy measured at one time strongly influence the uncertainty of the next time. Real-time updating the prediction error samples can effectively reflect the instability of wind farm power predicted risk.